This is the second in a series of four posts. The first in the series is here.
PREDICTION 2: Donald Trump will get worse.
Whatever the amount that Judge Engoron awards in the tax fraud case, it will surely increase the burden of stress that Donald Trump carries every day. For a man who has shaped his identity around his wealth (most rich people don't go around talking about how rich they are), losing hundreds of millions of dollars, quickly and publicly, will be absolute hell.
He won't take it well, and he won't take it quietly. He will rage, more and more and more.
The second E. Jean Carroll case led him to exhibit deeply abnormal levels of anger (don't take my word for this - just read his posts on Truth Social.). The political press will not know how to respond when Trump's mental ill-health publicly manifests daily.
I hope that they will decide to start interviewing mental health professionals the way that they consult other professionals for their expertise.
In any case, Trump's ongoing emotional collapse will be accompanied by a parallel cognitive decline.
UPDATE: This cognitive decline came to the forefront in the last days before the New Hampshire Republican primary. In a rally speech, Trump tried to recite his talking point about having offered then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 10,000 National Guard troops to protect the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. But his brain could not get his mouth to say “Nancy Pelosi”, and instead he said, “Nikki Haley” three times in a row.
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Imagine being Donald Trump in that moment. You are engaged in the fight of your life. Multiple court actions could end with you spending the rest of your days broke and in prison, and your only real hope of avoiding that is by becoming President again. You HAVE TO become President again, so you're speaking to this crowd in New Hampshire. You want to remind them about Nancy Pelosi's failure, but when you start the sentence, you hear your mouth say, “Nikki Haley.”
“No, not Nikki Haley,” you think. “Nancy Pelosi.”
You stop the sentence to try again, and your mouth says, “Nikki Haley.”
“What the hell, Donald?” you think. “Get it right. NANCY PELOSI.”
You try a third time, and FOR THE THIRD TIME, your mouth says, “Nikki Haley.”
What do you do? You are standing in front of thousands of people, you are live on camera, and everyone watching you right now must be thinking that you can't finish a sentence, they must be thinking that you're as bad as Joe Biden. You HAVE TO finish the sentence, because you HAVE TO become President, because you CAN'T go to prison.
“Keep talking,” you tell yourself. “You can do this. Finish the sentence.” And while you work up the will to finish the sentence, you keep talking to avoid looking like Mitch McConnell, to make sure people know that you CAN talk, and you hear your mouth say,
“You know they - do you know they destroyed all of the information, all of the evidence, everything…”
“Finish the sentence, Donald.” you tell yourself. “ Nancy Pelosi.”
You hear your mouth continue, “deleted and destroyed all of it. All of it, because of - lots of things, like...”
You’re internally screaming at yourself now. “FINISH THE GODDAMN SENTENCE, DONALD! SAY, ‘NANCY PELOSI IS IN CHARGE OF SECURITY.”
And you push yourself, HARD. No one knows how hard you push to finish the sentence. And you hear your mouth say, “Nikki Haley is in charge of security.”
And the entire world hears it, too. The entire world knows that there's something wrong.
You know that there's something wrong. But you HAVE TO become President again.
So you keep going, and going. And with every rally, with every appearance on a set of courthouse steps, with every interview, you know that there's a chance that what happened that night will happen again.
You know that your father had Alzheimer's.
You know that Alzheimer's tends to be hereditary.
Your father died at 93. You're just 77. So you have at least 10 good years left, right?
And you CAN'T spend those years in prison. You HAVE TO become President again.
So you keep pushing yourself, harder than anyone will ever know.
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He won't get better. The world will watch him become worse.
PREDICTION 3: Donald Trump will lose support.
As the world watches Donald Trump's legal troubles get worse, and as the world watches Donald Trump become worse, more and more people will waver in their support of him. Eventually, more and more people will decide not to vote for him.
How many will fall away before Super Tuesday (March 5)? Impossible to say. But even if the impact comes after Super Tuesday, the primary season will not be all roses and rainbows. In fact, I believe that the cumulative impact will be such that by the time of the Republican convention in August, non-MAGA Republicans will say, “We can’t win with this guy.”
UPDATE: None, really. The primary season has certainly not become all roses and rainbows for Donald Trump.
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