I wrote the first draft of this piece on December 29. I meant to publish it on Homewood Nation but let myself get held back by tech issues (actually, by my reluctance to do the work of resolving the tech issues).
Things have changed since I wrote it, so I'm inserting updates, which will be in italics, as this is.
This is the first in a series of four posts.
2024 is upon us, and the political commentariat are making predictions about how the 2024 Presidential election will go.
Here, I’ll share mine, which I can summarize in four words: Joe Biden will win.
I believe that Joe Biden’s path to victory is already being cleared by Donald Trump.
To use a different metaphor, Donald Trump has already set his own house ablaze, and in 2024, it will collapse.
I predict that six things will happen in 2024 to make a Biden victory inevitable.
PREDICTION 1: Donald Trump’s legal troubles will get worse.
This is simply a matter of cases that are already in progress continuing to move forward. The political press has generally failed to inform America about just how much legal trouble Donald Trump is in. Americans should have at least a general awareness of at least six cases by now:
- The stolen documents case.
- The Georgia RICO case
- The federal election subversion case
- The New York state fraud case
- The E. Jean Carroll cases
- The Stormy Daniels case (being prosecuted as an election interference case)
A press that has trained itself to cover politics by chasing after polls, reporting on rallies, analyzing ads and deconstructing debates is simply not equipped to deal with the fact that a leading candidate for the presidency is the defendant in more criminal and civil cases right now that most people will ever see in a lifetime.
But the cases listed above are in fact, the tip of a legal iceberg that could well sink the good ship Trump, golden toilets and all. There are, as of this writing, no fewer than 35 OTHER cases in progress against Trump.
The only place that I have ever seen all of his cases even listed is in this compendium compiled by Forbes magazine. I know NO news outlet that is actually reporting on all of them.
In 2024, all six of the cases listed above will move toward a conclusion. In criminal cases, he will be found guilty or not guilty. In civil cases, he will be found liable or not liable. Either way, the forward movement in these cases will automatically cause them to come more to the forefront in news coverage, and therefore to penetrate more fully into the public’s consciousness. The public will understand more and more fully the depth of his legal troubles.
UPDATE: The second E. Jean Carroll case ended on Jan. 26, with the jury awarding Ms. Carroll a total of $83.3 million in damages. Trump is appealing, of course, but under New York state law, he has to either post a bond or put the entire amount in escrow with the state until the appeal is settled. He has already paid $5.5 million to cover the damage award from the first E. Jean Carroll trial, which concluded last May 9.
He is also appealing that case. Those appeals are racking up attorney fees. Add those fees to the damage awards, and Trump will have spent more than $90 million fighting Ms. Carroll. And losing.
SIDE NOTE: In the first trial, the jury concluded that Trump was liable for, or guilty of, "sexual abuse" rather than rape because a specific section of New York state law defines rape as penetrating a woman's vagina with a penis without her consent. Ms. Carroll's claim, to which the jury agreed, was that Trump had used his fingers rather than his penis. On July 25, U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan, made it clear that the distinction makes no difference - that while Trump's assault did not fit the narrow legal description of rape, "the jury found that Mr. Trump in fact did exactly that.”
Donald Trump raped E. Jean Carroll. The political press should stop referring to him every three seconds as "the former president" and start referring to him sometimes as "the adjudicated rapist."
UPDATE #2: The next episode of “Donald Trump's Legal Troubles Just Got Worse” was slated for last week. Judge Arthur Engoron, who is presiding over the trial in the civil fraud lawsuit brought by New York attorney general Letitia James, had promised to issue his ruling before February 1. But he has delayed that ruling, possibly til mid-February. When it comes, it will tell Trump how much he and his companies must pay the state in damages for having committed tax fraud for over a decade. The lawsuit originally asked for $250 million, but Ms. James has now upped the ante to $370 million.
If the judge grants that award, Donald Trump will, again, certainly appeal. But again, he will still have to come up with $370 million, on top of the $83.3 million that was awarded to Ms. Carroll. Which was on top of the $5 million awarded to Ms. Carroll earlier.
That's $458.3 million - excluding attorney fees.
Does Donald Trump, whose wealth is mostly in real estate, have that much money?
According to him - no, he doesn't.
In a deposition for the (second?) E. Jean Carroll case, Trump said that he had $400 million in cash.
What do you do when you have $400 million, and need to pay $458.3 million?
We may find out in the next few weeks.
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